If you didn't get chance to listen in full to the latest press briefing from the government on Thursday 12 March 2020 and you wonder what is happening - or not - especially when we look at other countries across Europe - then you probably ought to if only to be saved from sound bites which don't show the full picture (You can listen to it here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UdqF_R1ziE&t=1511s). I've been trying to make sense of this in my own limited way and then came across a series to tweets by Professor Ian Donald (@iandonald_psych) which I found very helpful. 

I'm not saying you should agree with it - but we owe it to ourselves to at least understand the strategic rationale behind it and his tweets are extremely informative in this regard and for that reason I wanted to share them. 

15 Tweets by Professor Ian Donald. Psychologist: Social, & Environmental research, & behavioural factors in Anti-Microbial Resistance. Emeritus Professor, University of Liverpool. 

1. The govt strategy on #Coronavirus is more refined than those used in other countries and potentially very effective. But it is also riskier and based on a number of assumptions. They need to be correct, and the measures they introduce need to work when they are supposed to.

2. This all assumes I'm correct in what I think the govt are doing and why. I could be wrong - and wouldn't be surprised. But it looks to me like. . .

3. A UK starting assumption is that a high number of the population will inevitably get infected whatever is done – up to 80%. As you can’t stop it, so it is best to manage it.

There are limited health resources so the aim is to manage the flow of the seriously ill to these.

4. The Italian model the aims to stop infection. The UKs wants infection BUT of particular categories of people. The aim of the UK is to have as many lower risk people infected as possible. Immune people cannot infect others; the more there are the lower the risk of infection

5. That's herd immunity.
Based on this idea, at the moment the govt wants people to get infected, up until hospitals begin to reach capacity. At that they want to reduce, but not stop infection rate. Ideally they balance it so the numbers entering hospital = the number leaving.

6. That balance is the big risk.

All the time people are being treated, other mildly ill people are recovering and the population grows a higher percent of immune people who can’t infect. They can also return to work and keep things going normally - and go to the pubs.

7.The risk is being able to accurately manage infection flow relative to health case resources. Data on infection rates needs to be accurate, the measures they introduce need to work and at the time they want them to and to the degree they want, or the system is overwhelmed.

8. Schools: Kids generally won’t get very ill, so the govt can use them as a tool to infect others when you want to increase infection. When you need to slow infection, that tap can be turned off – at that point they close the schools. Politically risky for them to say this.

9. The same for large scale events - stop them when you want to slow infection rates; turn another tap off. This means schools etc are closed for a shorter period and disruption generally is therefore for a shorter period, AND with a growing immune population. This is sustainable

10. After a while most of the population is immune, the seriously ill have all received treatment and the country is resistant. The more vulnerable are then less at risk. This is the end state the govt is aiming for and could achieve.

11. BUT a key issue during this process is protection of those for whom the virus is fatal. It's not clear the full measures there are to protect those people. It assumes they can measure infection, that their behavioural expectations are met - people do what they think they will

12. The Italian (and others) strategy is to stop as much infection as possible - or all infection. This is appealing, but then what? The restrictions are not sustainable for months. So the will need to be relaxed. But that will lead to reemergence of infections.

13. Then rates will then start to climb again. So they will have to reintroduce the restrictions each time infection rates rise.  That is not a sustainable model and takes much longer to achieve the goal of a largely immune population with low risk of infection of the vulnerable

14. As the government tries to achieve equilibrium between hospitalisations and infections, more interventions will appear. It's perhaps why there are at the moment few public information films on staying at home. They are treading a tight path, but possibly a sensible one.

15. This is probably the best strategy, but they should explain it more clearly. It relies on a lot of assumptions, so it would be good to know what they are - especially behavioural. Most encouraging, it's way too clever for #BorisJohnson to have had any role in developing. 

According to Bill Gates, 'In the past week, COVID-19 has started to behave a lot like the once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about. I hope it’s not that bad, but we should assume that it will be until we know otherwise.' For sure we're all now acting like it is and our conversations are freaking us out.  The disruption it creates and the fear it instils is outside our normal experience in the West and is unprecedented in the lifetime of many of us. So what are we to do? 

Here are few thoughts as we journey together through unchartered waters. They are not in any particular order - and neither are they exhaustive but they are the things that are running through my mind at the moment.

• Guard your conversations well - your mind is as important as your body in dealing with challenges and so make sure you guard your conversations. Be real, talk openly about the situation but measure how long you are prepared to stay on the topic. Too much conversation will only fuel the fire of fear so be watchful. 
• Be careful how much news you consume - it’s wise to stay informed and follow the best advice from experts but be careful how much news you consume. Fear has its own appetite so be careful how much you feed it
• Eat healthily and eat to strengthen your immune system - I’m no expert but go look up Dr Sally Bell on Facebook, you can find her @drsallybell - she speaks sense and not paranoia and is putting great advice out there about how to respond
• Wash your hands a bloody lot - and moisturise them so you can sustain it over a long period. My hands are already feeling odd because of all the extra washing so moisturising is the way to go!
• Exercise - if possible, increase the amount of exercise you normally do. Look at any rhythms that have helped you in the past to manage stress.
• Sleep - more than normal. Get to bed an hour earlier - you’ll only be tempted to watch NewsNight if you stay up and that's not going to help
• Take a measure on your days - it looks like this pandemic will last well into early summer and beyond so look at how you can reserve strength and build stamina for the long haul
• Take a check on all unnecessary expenditure - look where you can save a little to create financial margin. The government has introduced measures to help and it looks like banks will offer things to ease the burden on debt over the short term so keep alert to this and what your bank is offering if you need it

Some spiritual stuff...

Christ’s not just for Christmas - he’s also for crisis. (And other things too, of course but let’s stay on track). Jesus has come to us so we can draw close to him. If you’re a person of faith this matters. So how can you dig deeper into your faith at this time and how can it help you and others? A few thoughts ....

Take time to connect with God and pay attention to your own spirituality. Consider the following as pathways to help with this.

• Let your walk with Christ be the foundation of all emotion and action. He is the cornerstone and bedrock of life. He is with us at all times - the true travelling companion. If you feel unsure about this or distant from him then create space to let your heart reconnect. The most important image to hold in your mind is a loving Heavenly Father - the most important parable to hold is the prodigal Son (Luke 15). It embodies what is God’s primary disposition towards creation which is paternal - let him love you. 
• Go in search of this love and allow it to be a source of comfort. How can you do that? By going back to some simple and basic rhythms. If you’ve got them in your life - then great just do them.

If you are unsure then here’s a few ideas...

• What songs have helped you in the past - start singing and playing them again. 
• Go to the scriptures that have been a solace to you in the past and allow them to speak to you again - where you have found comfort before learn to revisit that place.
• If possible go for walks in the fresh air and breath it in - let God connect with you in the wonder of creation. 
• Share spiritual comfort with others - let Christ be with you in the conversations. Consider these words from the Apostle Paul, 'Praise be to the God and Father of our Lord Jesus Christ, the Father of compassion and the God of all comfort, who comforts us in all our troubles, so that we can comfort those in any trouble with the comfort we ourselves receive from God.' (2 Corinthians 1:3-4)
• Take your fears to God - literally find some space and name them before Jesus - tell him how it makes you feel and ask him to help you. Allow peace to come as a soothing ointment. 
• Take courage from the assurance that God is with you. God doesn’t just tell you not to fear the scriptures takes us to places and practices that help us not to be overwhelmed by worry. There’s an example here: 'Do not be anxious about anything, but in every situation, by prayer and petition, with thanksgiving, present your requests to God. And the peace of God, which transcends all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus. (Philippians 4:6-7)' and here: 'Cast all your anxiety on him because he cares for you. (1 Peter 5:7). 
• And pray - pray over your family and friends - pray over our nation and world. Why not start with this ancient Psalm and let the words become a prayer - 'Whoever dwells in the shelter of the Most High will rest in the shadow of the Almighty. I will say of the Lord, ‘He is my refuge and my fortress, my God, in whom I trust.’ Surely he will save you from the fowler’s snare and from the deadly pestilence. He will cover you with his feathers, and under his wings you will find refuge; his faithfulness will be your shield and rampart. You will not fear the terror of night, nor the arrow that flies by day, nor the pestilence that stalks in the darkness, nor the plague that destroys at midday. (Psalm 91:1-6)'

And finally for now, Jo came across these comments recently, ‘Listen to the medical experts and take appropriate measures (wash your hands etc). But we need to replace our fear with faith and pray for our nation, that God would protect us. Philippians 4 reminds us: 'Don't worry anything and pray about everything’ Our God is bigger than the coronavirus.

So they are some of my thoughts – what helpful articles, scriptures, links etc have you found – please let me know in the comments below.